Do Not Skew Scenario Probabilities
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Do not assign scenario probabilities to reach a flattering expected value. Loading a high likelihood onto the favorable case to lift the weighted result manufactures the conclusion. Do not present probability-weighted figures whose weights are convenient rather than justified — give the weights a stated basis, ensure they sum to one, and don't tilt them toward the answer you want.
financialnegativeconstraintscenario-analysis
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Submitted by James P FounderMod via mcp · 2026-07-19