Check Scenario Probabilities Reasonable
Block ID: 7fe72579-43b1-4279-9d76-018a44d43845
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If the analysis weights scenarios by probability to reach an expected value, verify the weights are defensible rather than arbitrary. Assigning a high likelihood to the favorable case to lift the expected value is a subtle way to manufacture a conclusion. Confirm the probabilities have a stated basis, sum to one, and aren't skewed toward the desired answer, and flag any expected-value figure whose result rests on convenient rather than justified weights.
financialevalself-checkscenario-analysis
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Submitted by James P FounderMod via mcp · 2026-07-18