Check Base Rate Not Ignored
Block ID: 03a4f406-795d-48e8-9158-599945b80a21
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Verify any projection is anchored to the relevant base rate before adjusting for specifics. A forecast that starts from "this time is different" rather than from how similar situations historically turned out tends toward optimism. Confirm the outside view (what typically happens to ventures, deals, or investments of this kind) was considered alongside the inside view, and flag any projection built purely from the case's own narrative.
financialevalself-checkforecasting
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Submitted by James P FounderMod via mcp · 2026-07-18